The Lifetime Burden of Schizophrenia as Estimated by a Government-Centric Fiscal Analytic Framework
Rui Martins, Aditi Kadakia, G. Rhys Williams, Snežana Milanović, Mark P. Connolly
Abstract
To estimate the fiscal consequences of schizophrenia compared to the general US population using a "government perspective" fiscal analytic modeling framework capturing lost tax revenue and broader government costs in 2021. Schizophrenia was modeled from age 23 using a cohort-based Markov chain with 6-week cycles, simulating the effect of antipsychotic treatment sequences on remission and relapse. Markov states were defined using efficacy and safety outcomes from short- and long-term clinical trials. Mortality was based on US lifetables, schizophrenia-related suicide, and cardiovascular risks. A semi-Markov model with annual cycles simulated the likelihood and costs of incarceration and homelessness in community-based individuals. Lifetime fiscal consequences were estimated conditionally to survival, remission/relapse status, and likelihood of socioeconomic outcomes. Costs and life years were discounted at 3.0% annually. Uncertainty was explored in 1-way and scenario analyses. Unemployment, disability, incarceration, homelessness, health care use, and productivity losses were more common in people living with schizophrenia. Schizophrenia was associated with a $1,540,042 per person lifetime fiscal loss to the government, with $56,707 per life year lived with schizophrenia. Health care costs represented 41.9% of the fiscal losses, 39.4% were due to criminal and homelessness costs, and 17.5% related to foregone tax revenue. Considering a 1.19% prevalence of schizophrenia, the estimated annual fiscal burden in the US was $173.6 billion. The fiscal framework illustrates how schizophrenia influences taxation and government transfer payments over time. These findings can be used to augment cost-effectiveness analyses and inform stakeholders of the fiscal impact of schizophrenia to inform priority interventions.