WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update: A Prediction for 2021–25
Leon Hermanson, Doug Smith, Melissa Seabrook, Roberto Bilbao, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Étienne Tourigny, Vladimir Lapin, Viatcheslav Kharin, William J. Merryfield, Reinel Sospedra‐Alfonso, Panos Athanasiadis, Dario Nicolì, Silvio Gualdi, Nick Dunstone, Rosie Eade, Adam A. Scaife, Mark Collier, T. Okane, Vassili Kitsios, Paul A. Sandery, Klaus Pankatz, Barbara Früh, Holger Pohlmann, Wolfgang A. Müller, Takahito Kataoka, Hiroaki Tatebe, Masayoshi Ishii, Yukiko Imada, Tim Kruschke, Torben Koenigk, Mehdi Pasha Karami, Shuting Yang, Tian Tian, Liping Zhang, Tom Delworth, Xiaosong Yang, Fanrong Zeng, Yiguo Wang, François Counillon, Noel Keenlyside, Ingo Bethke, J. Lean, Jürg Luterbacher, Rupa Kumar Kolli, Arun Kumar
Abstract
Abstract As climate change accelerates, societies and climate-sensitive socioeconomic sectors cannot continue to rely on the past as a guide to possible future climate hazards. Operational decadal predictions offer the potential to inform current adaptation and increase resilience by filling the important gap between seasonal forecasts and climate projections. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has recognized this and in 2017 established the WMO Lead Centre for Annual to Decadal Climate Predictions (shortened to “Lead Centre” below), which annually provides a large multimodel ensemble of predictions covering the next 5 years. This international collaboration produces a prediction that is more skillful and useful than any single center can achieve. One of the main outputs of the Lead Centre is the Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (GADCU), a consensus forecast based on these predictions. This update includes maps showing key variables, discussion on forecast skill, and predictions of climate indices such as the global mean near-surface temperature and Atlantic multidecadal variability. it also estimates the probability of the global mean temperature exceeding 1.5°C above preindustrial levels for at least 1 year in the next 5 years, which helps policy-makers understand how closely the world is approaching this goal of the Paris Agreement. This paper, written by the authors of the GADCU, introduces the GADCU, presents its key outputs, and briefly discusses its role in providing vital climate information for society now and in the future.