External Validation of the HATCH (Hemorrhage, Age, Treatment, Clinical State, Hydrocephalus) Score for Prediction of Functional Outcome After Subarachnoid Hemorrhage
Nicolai Maldaner, V.S. Visser, Isabel C. Hostettler, Philippe Bijlenga, Julien Haemmerli, Michel Roethlisberger, Raphaël Guzman, Roy Thomas Daniel, Lorenzo Giammattei, Martin N. Stienen, Luca Regli, Dagmar Verbaan, René Post, Menno R. Germans
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The Hemorrhage, Age, Treatment, Clinical State, Hydrocephalus (HATCH) Score has previously shown to predict functional outcome in aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH). OBJECTIVE: To validate the HATCH score. METHODS: This is a pooled cohort study including prospective collected data on 761 patients with aSAH from 4 different hospitals. The HATCH score for prediction of functional outcome was validated using calibration and discrimination analysis (area under the curve). HATCH score model performance was compared with the World Federation of Neurosurgical Societies and Barrow Neurological Institute score. RESULTS: At the follow-up of at least 6 months, favorable (Glasgow Outcome Score 4-5) and unfavorable functional outcomes (Glasgow Outcome Score 1-3) were observed in 512 (73%) and 189 (27%) patients, respectively. A higher HATCH score was associated with an increased risk of unfavorable outcome with a score of 1 showing a risk of 1.3% and a score of 12 yielding a risk of 67%. External validation showed a calibration intercept of -0.07 and slope of 0.60 with a Brier score of 0.157 indicating good model calibration and accuracy. With an area under the curve of 0.81 (95% CI 0.77-0.84), the HATCH score demonstrated superior discriminative ability to detect favorable outcome at follow-up compared with the World Federation of Neurosurgical Societies and Barrow Neurological Institute score with 0.72 (95% CI 0.67-0.75) and 0.63 (95% CI 0.59-0.68), respectively. CONCLUSION: This multicenter external validation analysis confirms the HATCH score to be a strong independent predictor for functional outcome. Its incorporation into daily practice may be of benefit for goal-directed patient care in aSAH.