Archetypes of local governance for flood risk reduction decision-making under uncertain climate change futures

Abstract

Urban coastal communities are among the most vulnerable to flood hazards, with these threats set to increase under climate change. Knowledge of how uncertainty shapes passive or proactive local decision-making processes of climate adaptation remains sparse – with significant potential to inform resilient and sustainable futures. To understand these decision dynamics, we developed a serious game to simulate the local governance roles, resources, and assets involved in managing flood risk under uncertain climate scenarios. Using data on the actions of game workshops conducted in the Philippines, we identify three distinct archetypes of collective adaptation decision-making: (1) Hierarchical Alliances; (2) Passive Enthusiasts and (3) Deliberative Strategists. We then examine how these archetypes respond to situational, temporal, choice, and outcome uncertainties present in climate change scenarios, uncovering six strategies used to act, reduce, supress, and forestall uncertainties: (a) resource sharing; (b) coordination; (c) early action; (d) mobilising values; (e) transferring accountability; and (f) risk balancing. Our results show how different archetypes perform in adaptation decisions, offering new guidance on how to structure local governance mechanisms in flood planning under climate change impacts.

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