Development and validation of a nomogram to predict recompensation in HBV-related cirrhosis with ascites as the single first decompensating event

Abstract

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Little is known about the influencing factors for recompensation in HBV-related cirrhosis patients with ascites as the single first decompensating event and it's necessary to build a prediction model for these patients. METHODS: Hepatitis B virus-related cirrhosis patients with ascites hospitalized for the first decompensation were included and they were divided into the training cohort (2010.03-2020.03) and the validation cohort (2020.04-2022.04). All patients received antiviral therapy within 3 months before admission or immediately after admission. Recompensation is defined as the patient's ascites disappeared without diuretics, which were maintained for more than 1 year and no other decompensated complications, hepatocellular carcinoma, or liver transplantation occurred. The nomogram was developed from a training cohort of 279 patients and validated in another cohort of 72 patients. RESULTS: Totally, 42.7% of the decompensated patients achieved recompensation. According to the results of logistic regression and competing risk analysis, six independent factors associated with recompensation were found and these factors comprised the nomogram: age, alanine aminotransferase (ALT), albumin (ALB), serum sodium (Na), alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), and maintained virological response (MVR). Through external validation, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the nomogram was 0.848 (95% CI: 0.761, 0.936), which was significantly better than CTP, MELD, MELDNa, MELD 3.0, and ALBI grade. CONCLUSIONS: Age, ALT, ALB, Na, AFP, and MVR are closely related to the recompensation. The nomogram developed based on these items can accurately predict the possibility of recompensation in hepatitis B cirrhosis patients with ascites as the single first decompensating event.

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