Modeling the transmission dynamics and the impact of the control interventions for the COVID-19 epidemic outbreak
Fernando Saldaña, Centro de Investigación en Matemáticas, 36023 Guanajuato, Guanajuato, Mexico, Hugo Flores-Argüedas, José Ariel Camacho-Gutíerrez, Ignacio Barradas, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Autónoma de Baja California, 22860 Baja California, Mexico
Abstract
In this paper we develop a compartmental epidemic model to study the transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic outbreak, with Mexico as a practical example. In particular, we evaluate the theoretical impact of plausible control interventions such as home quarantine, social distancing, cautious behavior and other self-imposed measures. We also investigate the impact of environmental cleaning and disinfection, and government-imposed isolation of infected individuals. We use a Bayesian approach and officially published data to estimate some of the model parameters, including the basic reproduction number. Our findings suggest that social distancing and quarantine are the winning strategies to reduce the impact of the outbreak. Environmental cleaning can also be relevant, but its cost and effort required to bring the maximum of the outbreak under control indicate that its cost-efficacy is low.