The Economic Potential of Agrivoltaic Systems in Apple Cultivation—A Hungarian Case Study
Aidana Chalgynbayeva, Péter Balogh, László Szöllősi, Zoltán Gabnai, F. Apáti, Marianna Sipos, Attila Bai
Abstract
Agrivoltaic systems (AVS) allow the simultaneous use of land—as a limited resource—for crop production and electricity generation. This paper introduces the development prospects of AVS in Hungary with insights into international trends. The most important part is a complex economic analysis and a unit cost analysis of a 38 MWp capacity AVS, considering the most typical basic data in electricity and apple production. The applied risk analysis is based on a Monte Carlo simulation, the distribution function, and probabilities. To introduce the economic facet of the competitiveness of AVS, a comparative analysis was carried out between AVS, ground-mounted photovoltaic (GM-PV) systems, and conventional apple production systems (ConAPS). In the most probable scenario, the AVS was financially attractive (NPV = 70 million EUR under 30 years). Our correlation analysis shows that feed-in tariff (FIT) price and the role of financing are considered the dominant economic factors. A favorable FIT price enhances the profitability of AVS; however, it makes GM-PV systems more profitable compared to AVS, so it negatively affects the competitiveness of AVS systems. AVS operations result in a more balanced unit cost of apples and of electricity compared to the independent operation of GM-PV systems and of ConAPS; in addition, it allows for land saving and more intensive land use.