Embedded critical material flow: The case of niobium, the United States, and China
Dalton M. McCaffrey, Nedal T. Nassar, Simon M. Jowitt, Abraham J. Padilla, L. R. Bird
Abstract
Niobium, often classified as critical, is typically embedded within steels essential for infrastructure and transportation. Most niobium-consuming countries are import-dependent on primary stage niobium, meaning traditional material flow analysis, which often excludes critical commodities embedded within products of large-scale industries, would miss important flows in the fabrication and manufacturing stages and underestimate niobium consumption. This study presents the first dynamic (2000–2020) niobium flow analysis for two niobium-consuming, net import-dependent countries: the United States (U.S.) and China. Results demonstrate that the U.S. is import-dependent throughout all stages of the niobium flow cycle including embedded and primary flows, whereas China is only import-dependent on primary niobium. Moreover, while most U.S. imports of niobium embedded within (semi-)finished goods are consumed domestically, most niobium-containing goods manufactured in China are exported, suggesting a supply disruption would affect their economies differently. This research demonstrates the necessity of embedded flows for criticality assessments and evaluating supply restrictions.