The incidence trends of oral cancers worldwide from 1988 to 2012 and the prediction up to 2030
Dong‐Ning Lu, W J Zhang, Yan‐Ze Lin, Yi‐Ning Zhang, Cheng‐Ying Shao, Chuanming Zheng, Minghua Ge, Jiajie Xu
Abstract
BACKGROUND: This paper aims to analyze the time trend of OCs incidence in 43 countries (1988-2012) and predict the incidence trend of OCs (2012-2030). METHODS: In the database for Cancer Incidence in Five Continents, the annual data on OCs incidence grouped by age and gender were obtained from 108 cancer registries in 43 countries. The age-standardized incidence rates were calculated, and the Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict the incidence in 2030. RESULTS: South Asia and Oceania had the highest ASR in 1988 (9.24/100 000) and 2012 (6.74/100 000). It was predicted that India, Thailand, the United Kingdom, the Czech Republic, Austria, and Japan would be the countries with an increased incidence of OCs in 2030. CONCLUSION: Regional custom is an important factor affecting the incidence of OCs. According to our predictions., it is necessary to control risk factors according to local conditions and enhance screening and education.