Modeling the feasibility of fermentation-produced protein at a globally relevant scale
Andrew Fletcher, Nick W. Smith, Jeremy P. Hill, Warren C. McNabb
Abstract
Introduction Fermentation-produced protein (FPP) is gaining global interest as a means of protein production with potentially lower cost and environmental footprint than conventionally-produced animal-sourced proteins. However, estimates on the potential performance of FPP vary substantially, limiting assessment of its scalability and utility. Methods We integrate life cycle analysis data with nutritional and economic data in an interactive online tool, simulating the requirements and consequences of fermentation at a globally-relevant scale. Results The tool demonstrates that production of an additional 18 million tons of protein annually via fermentation (~10% of 2020 global consumption) would necessitate 10–25 million hectares of feedstock cropland expansion/reallocation, utilize up to 1% of global electricity generation, produce 159 million tons CO 2 equivalents, and have a total process input cost of 53.77 billion USD, with a negligible impact on nutrient supply beyond protein. Discussion This tool should be used to inform the debate on the future use of fermentation in the food system.