Potential lethal outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) among the elderly in retirement homes and long-term facilities, France, March 2020
Jean-François Étard, Philippe Vanhems, Laëtitia Atlani-Duault, René Écochard
Abstract
Motivated by the potential devastating effect of a COVID-19 outbreak in retirement homes and long-term facilities for dependent elderly, we present the impact of worst-case scenarios in French institutions using a specific age structure and case-age fatality ratios. The death toll could equal the yearly death toll caused by seasonal influenza in those older than 65 years or could largely exceed that, depending on the final attack rate and proportion of infected institutions.
Topics & Concepts
OutbreakDeath tollCase fatality rateTollCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)DemographyMedicine2019-20 coronavirus outbreakAttack rateSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)Long-term careDiseaseEnvironmental healthGerontologyVirologyInfectious disease (medical specialty)ImmunologyPathologySociologyPopulationNursingCOVID-19 epidemiological studiesCOVID-19 and healthcare impactsCOVID-19 and Mental Health