Impact of chemotherapy-induced necrosis on event-free and overall survival after preoperative MAP chemotherapy in patients with primary high-grade localized osteosarcoma
Yusuke Tsuda, Kim Tsoi, Michael Parry, Jonathan Stevenson, Tomohiro Fujiwara, Vaiyapuri P. Sumathi, Lee Jeys
Abstract
Aims To assess the correlation between the histological response to preoperative chemotherapy and event-free survival (EFS) or overall survival (OS) in patients with high-grade localized osteosarcoma. Methods Out of 625 patients aged ≤ 40 years treated for primary high-grade osteosarcoma between 1997 and 2016, 232 patients without clinically detectable metastases at the time of diagnosis and treated with preoperative high-dose methotrexate, adriamycin and cisplatin (MAP) chemotherapy and surgery were included. Associations of chemotherapy-induced necrosis in the resected specimen and EFS or OS were assessed using Cox model and the Pearson’s correlation coefficients (r). Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic analysis was applied to determine the optimal cut-off value of chemotherapy-induced necrosis for EFS and OS. Results OS was 74% (95% confidence interval (CI) 67 to 79) at five years. Median chemotherapy-induced necrosis was 85% (interquartile range (IQR) 50% to 97%). In multivariate Cox model, chemotherapy-induced necrosis was significantly associated with EFS and OS (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.99 (95% CI 0.98 to 0.99); p < 0.001 and HR = 0.98 (95% CI 0.97 to 0.99); p < 0.001, respectively). Positive correlation was observed between chemotherapy-induced necrosis and five-year EFS and five-year OS (r = 0.91; p < 0.001, and r = 0.85; p < 0.001, respectively). The optimal cut-off value of chemotherapy-induced necrosis for five-year EFS and five-year OS was 85% and 72%, respectively. Conclusion Chemotherapy-induced necrosis in the resected specimen showed positive correlation with EFS and OS in patients with high-grade localized osteosarcoma after MAP chemotherapy. In our analysis, optimal cut-off values of MAP chemotherapy-induced necrosis in EFS and OS were lower than the commonly used 90%, suggesting the need for re-evaluation of the optimal cut-off value through larger, international collaborative research. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(6):795–803.