Modeling SARS-CoV-2 viral kinetics and association with mortality in hospitalized patients from the French COVID cohort
Nadège Néant, Guillaume Lingas, Quentin Le Hingrat, Jade Ghosn, Ilka Engelmann, Quentin Lepiller, Alexandre Gaymard, Virginie Ferré, Cédric Hartard, Jean‐Christophe Plantier, Vincent Thibault, Julien Marlet, Brigitte Montès, Kévin Bouiller, François-Xavier Lescure, Jean‐François Timsit, Emmanuel Faure, Julien Poissy, Christian Chidiac, F. Raffi, Antoine Kimmoun, Manuel Etienne, Jean‐Christophe Richard, Pierre Tattevin, Denis Garot, Vincent Le Moing, Delphine Bachelet, Coralie Tardivon, Xavier Duval, Yazdan Yazdanpanah, France Mentré, Cédric Laouenan, Benoît Visseaux, Jérémie Guedj, for the French COVID Cohort Investigators and French Cohort Study groups
Abstract
). Finally, we used our model to simulate the effects of effective pharmacological interventions on time to viral clearance and mortality. A treatment able to reduce viral production by 90% upon hospital admission would shorten the time to viral clearance by 2.0 and 2.9 d in patients of age <65 y and ≥65 y, respectively. Assuming that the association between viral dynamics and mortality would remain similar to that observed in our population, this could translate into a reduction of mortality from 19 to 14% in patients of age ≥65 y with risk factors. Our results show that viral dynamics is associated with mortality in hospitalized patients. Strategies aiming to reduce viral load could have an effect on mortality rate in this population.