Differences in spatial versus temporal reaction norms for spring and autumn phenological events
María del Mar Delgado, Tomas Roslin, Gleb Tikhonov, Evgeniy Meyke, Coong Lo, Eliezer Gurarie, Marina Abadonova, Ozodbek Abduraimov, Olga Adrianova, Tatiana Akimova, Muzhigit Akkiev, Aleksandr Ananin, Elena Andreeva, Natalia Andriychuk, Maxim Antipin, Konstantin Arzamascev, Svetlana Babina, Miroslav Babushkin, Oleg Bakin, Anna Barabancova, Inna Basilskaja, Nina Belova, Natalia Belyaeva, Tatjana Bespalova, Evgeniya Bisikalova, Anatoly Bobretsov, Vladimir Bobrov, Vadim Bobrovskyi, Elena Bochkareva, Gennady Bogdanov, V. N. Bolshakov, Svetlana Bondarchuk, Evgeniya Bukharova, Alena Butunina, Yuri Buyvolov, Anna Buyvolova, Yuri Bykov, Elena Chakhireva, Olga Chashchina, Nadezhda Cherenkova, Sergej Chistjakov, Svetlana Chuhontseva, Evgeny A. Давыдов, Viktor Demchenko, Elena Diadicheva, Aleksandr Dobrolyubov, Ludmila Dostoyevskaya, Svetlana Drovnina, Zoya Drozdova, Akynaly Dubanaev, Yuriy Dubrovsky, Sergey Elsukov, Lidia Epova, Olga Ermakova, Olga Ermakova, Aleksandra Esengeldenova, Oleg Evstigneev, Irina Fedchenko, Violetta Fedotova, Tatiana Filatova, Sergey Gashev, Anatoliy Gavrilov, Irina Gaydysh, Dmitrij Golovcov, Nadezhda Goncharova, Elena Gorbunova, Tatyana Gordeeva, Vitaly Grishchenko, Ludmila Gromyko, Vladimir Hohryakov, Alexander Hritankov, Elena Ignatenko, Svetlana Igosheva, Uliya Ivanova, Natalya Ivanova, Yury Kalinkin, Evgeniya Kaygorodova, Fedor Kazansky, Darya Kiseleva, Anastasia Knorre, Leonid Kolpashikov, Evgenii Korobov, Helen Korolyova, Natalia Korotkikh, Gennadiy Kosenkov, Sergey Kossenko, Elvira Kotlugalyamova, Evgeny Kozlovsky, Vladimir Kozsheechkin, Alla Kozurak, Irina Kozyr, Aleksandra Krasnopevtseva, Sergey Kruglikov, Olga Kuberskaya, Aleksey Kudryavtsev, Elena Kulebyakina, Yuliia Kulsha, Margarita Kupriyanova, Murad Kurbanbagamaev, Anatoliy Kutenkov
Abstract
For species to stay temporally tuned to their environment, they use cues such as the accumulation of degree-days. The relationships between the timing of a phenological event in a population and its environmental cue can be described by a population-level reaction norm. Variation in reaction norms along environmental gradients may either intensify the environmental effects on timing (cogradient variation) or attenuate the effects (countergradient variation). To resolve spatial and seasonal variation in species' response, we use a unique dataset of 91 taxa and 178 phenological events observed across a network of 472 monitoring sites, spread across the nations of the former Soviet Union. We show that compared to local rates of advancement of phenological events with the advancement of temperature-related cues (i.e., variation within site over years), spatial variation in reaction norms tend to accentuate responses in spring (cogradient variation) and attenuate them in autumn (countergradient variation). As a result, among-population variation in the timing of events is greater in spring and less in autumn than if all populations followed the same reaction norm regardless of location. Despite such signs of local adaptation, overall phenotypic plasticity was not sufficient for phenological events to keep exact pace with their cues-the earlier the year, the more did the timing of the phenological event lag behind the timing of the cue. Overall, these patterns suggest that differences in the spatial versus temporal reaction norms will affect species' response to climate change in opposite ways in spring and autumn.