Continuous reduction in socio-ecological system vulnerability on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau from 2000 to 2050 under an intermediate protection scenario

Abstract

The intensifying interactions and pressures within socio-ecological systems (SESs) have precipitated a convergence of multifaceted challenges in recent decades, including environmental degradation and imbalanced socioeconomic development. Despite the critical importance of vulnerability assessments in informing climate preparedness strategies and formulating adaptive governance frameworks, limited scholarly attention has been directed toward comprehensive assessments of socio-ecological system vulnerability (SEV) through an integrated SES perspective across both historical baselines and future climate projections. To address this, we developed an integrative assessment framework for SEV and explored the spatiotemporal dynamics of SEV across the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) from 2000 to 2020. Random forest models were employed to project vulnerability trajectories under three future scenarios (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, and SSP3–7.0) spanning 2030–2050. Our geospatial analyses revealed a distinct latitudinal gradient in SEV distribution across the QTP, with vulnerability levels progressively increasing from the southeastern high-vegetation regions to the northwestern arid zones under both historical conditions and modeled future scenarios. Temporally, the study period witnessed a 1.38 % reduction in aggregate vulnerability, particularly evident in the eastern region. Forward projections indicate accelerated vulnerability mitigation across all scenarios, with the SSP2–4.5 moderate climate trajectory demonstrating optimal outcomes - extreme vulnerability areas are projected to diminish to 12.66 % by 2050, representing a 9.26 % reduction from 2020 baseline levels, while maintaining consistent downward trends throughout the projection window. This methodological innovation provides a transferable framework for regional-scale SEV quantification, enabling evidence-based policymaking for SES management. The scenario-specific vulnerability projections offer critical insights for optimizing disaster risk reduction strategies and enhancing climate adaptation pathways, particularly crucial for high-altitude ecosystems facing accelerated warming trends. Our findings underscore the synergistic potential of integrated ecological conservation measures and sustainable development initiatives in mitigating socio-ecological risks under evolving climate regimes. • A comprehensive framework for assessing socio-ecological system vulnerability (SEV) was developed. • The SEV increased from southeast to northwest on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau and decreased from 2000 to 2020. • Future SEV will be lower than that in the past, with improvements in the socio-ecological system. • Among the three scenarios, the SSP2–4.5 scenario was associated with the lowest SEV due to the high coupling degree.

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