Inferring the number of COVID-19 cases from recently reported deaths
Thibaut Jombart, Kevin van Zandvoort, Timothy Russell, Christopher I Jarvis, Amy Gimma, Sam Abbott, Samuel Clifford, Sebastian Funk, Hamish Gibbs, Yang Liu, Carl A. B. Pearson, Nikos I Bosse, Rosalind M. Eggo, Adam J. Kucharski, W. John Edmunds
Abstract
We estimate the number of COVID-19 cases from newly reported deaths in a population without previous reports. Our results suggest that by the time a single death occurs, hundreds to thousands of cases are likely to be present in that population. This suggests containment via contact tracing will be challenging at this point, and other response strategies should be considered. Our approach is implemented in a publicly available, user-friendly, online tool.
Topics & Concepts
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)Population2019-20 coronavirus outbreakSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)Contact tracingDemographyGeographyComputer scienceMedicineVirologyEnvironmental healthOutbreakPathologyDiseaseInfectious disease (medical specialty)SociologyCOVID-19 epidemiological studiesData-Driven Disease SurveillanceInfluenza Virus Research Studies