Review of Solar Energetic Particle Prediction Models
Kathryn Whitman, Ricky Egeland, I. G. Richardson, C. Allison, Philip Quinn, Janet Barzilla, Irina Kitiashvili, Viacheslav M. Sadykov, H. M. Bain, M. Dierckxsens, M. L. Mays, Tilaye Tadesse, Kerry T. Lee, E. Semones, J. G. Luhmann, Marlon Núñez, S. M. White, S. W. Kahler, A. G. Ling, Don Smart, Margaret Ann Shea, V. Tenishev, Soukaïna Filali Boubrahimi, Berkay Aydin, P. C. H. Martens, Rafal A. Angryk, M. S. Marsh, S. Dalla, Norma B. Crosby, N. A. Schwadron, Kamen Kozarev, M. Gorby, Matthew A. Young, Monica Laurenza, E. W. Cliver, Tommaso Alberti, Mirko Stumpo, Simone Benella, Athanasios Papaioannou, A. Anastasiadis, Ingmar Sandberg, Manolis K. Georgoulis, Anli Ji, Dustin Kempton, Chetraj Pandey, Gang Li, Junxiang Hu, G. P. Zank, Eleni Lavasa, Giorgos Giannopoulos, D. A. Falconer, Yash Kadadi, Ian Fernandes, M. A. Dayeh, Andrés Muñoz‐Jaramillo, Subhamoy Chatterjee, Kimberly Moreland, И. В. Соколов, I. I. Roussev, A. Taktakishvili, Frederic Effenberger, T. I. Gombosi, Zhenguang Huang, Lulu Zhao, Nicolas Wijsen, A. Aran, Stefaan Poedts, Athanasios Kouloumvakos, Miikka Paassilta, Rami Vainio, А. V. Belov, E. Eroshenko, М. А. Аbunina, А. А. Аbunin, C. C. Balch, O. Malandraki, Michalis Karavolos, B. Heber, Johannes Labrenz, Patrick Kühl, А. Г. Косовичев, Vincent Oria, Gelu M. Nita, Egor Illarionov, Patrick M. O’Keefe, Yu‐Cheng Jiang, Sheldon H. Fereira, Aatiya Ali, Evangelos Paouris, Sigiava Aminalragia‐Giamini, Piers Jiggens, Meng Jin, Christina O. Lee, Erika Palmerio, A. Bruno, Spiridon Kasapis, Xiantong Wang, Yang Chen, B. Sanahuja, D. Lario
Abstract
Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events are interesting from a scientific perspective as they are the product of a broad set of physical processes from the corona out through the extent of the heliosphere, and provide insight into processes of particle acceleration and transport that are widely applicable in astrophysics. From the operations perspective, SEP events pose a radiation hazard for aviation, electronics in space, and human space exploration, in particular for missions outside of the Earth’s protective magnetosphere including to the Moon and Mars. Thus, it is critical to improve the scientific understanding of SEP events and use this understanding to develop and improve SEP forecasting capabilities to support operations. Many SEP models exist or are in development using a wide variety of approaches and with differing goals. These include computationally intensive physics-based models, fast and light empirical models, machine learning-based models, and mixed-model approaches. The aim of this paper is to summarize all of the SEP models currently developed in the scientific community, including a description of model approach, inputs and outputs, free parameters, and any published validations or comparisons with data.