Monitoring and forecasting water erosion in response to climate change effects using the integration of the global RUSLE/SDR model and predictive models
Belhaj Fatima, Hlila Rachid, Abdeldjalil Belkendil, Abdessalam Ouallali, Beroho Mohamed, Alanoud T. Alfagham, Aqil Tariq
Abstract
This study proposes a comprehensive concept and a novel approach to examine and assess the impact of climate change on soil degradation within the Loukkos watershed. The main aims of this study are to quantify and predict the potential rate of soil erosion, monitor its changes, and determine the sediment yield (SY) from 1999 to 2040 more accurately. This is achieved using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE), which accounts for variations in rainfall erosivity and soil cover, along with the linear mixed-effects model and Cellular Automata-Markov forecasting models and the Sediment Delivery Ratio (SDR). Our approach is based on data provided by remote sensing as well as daily rainfall data recorded at ten stations and multi-temporal time series satellite data for the reference period of 1999–2019. The results of the study revealed that soil erosion rates in the Loukkos basin range from 0 to 3797.66 t . ha − 1 . year − 1 between 1999 and 2040, with an average loss of 111.51 t . ha − 1 . year − 1 and a SDR of 21.2 %. The average SY estimated by RUSLE/SDR is 6.81 Mm 3 , almost equal to the value measured at the El Makhazine dam reservoir by the Loukkos Hydraulic Basin Agency (ABHL). We obtained detailed and reliable estimates showing that the average soil loss in 1999 was 100.64 t . ha − 1 . year − 1 ; in 2009, it was 138.27 t . ha − 1 . year − 1 , in 2019, it was 110.98 t . ha − 1 . year − 1 , and it is projected to be 103.50 t . ha − 1 . year − 1 in 2029 and 104.16 t . ha − 1 . year − 1 in 2040. This study will provide valuable concepts and insights into soil degradation in the study area, serving as a fundamental reference for researchers in this field. Additionally, it will be an essential guide for regional policymakers in planning soil erosion control strategies and watershed management. • Predict soil erosion changes from 1999 to 2040 using advanced models. • Provides reliable soil loss projections for future climate scenarios. • Novel approach to assess climate change impact on soil degradation. • Combines RUSLE, SDR, LME, and CA-Markov models for soil erosion prediction. • Soil erosion rates in Loukkos range from 0 to 3797.66 t/ha/year (1999–2040).