Projecting Future Wetland Dynamics Under Climate Change and Land Use Pressure: A Machine Learning Approach Using Remote Sensing and Markov Chain Modeling
Penghao Ji, Rong Jun Su, Guodong Wu, Xue Lei, Zhijie Zhang, Haitao Fang, Runhong Gao, Wanchang Zhang, Donghui Zhang
Abstract
Wetlands in the Yellow River Watershed of Inner Mongolia face significant reductions under future climate and land use scenarios, threatening vital ecosystem services and water security. This study employs high-resolution projections from NASA’s Global Daily Downscaled Projections (GDDP) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report (IPCC AR6), combined with a machine learning and Cellular Automata–Markov (CA–Markov) framework to forecast the land cover transitions to 2040. Statistically downscaled temperature and precipitation data for two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) are integrated with satellite-based land cover (Landsat, Sentinel-1) from 2007 and 2023, achieving a high classification accuracy (over 85% overall, Kappa > 0.8). A Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) analysis indicates that rising temperatures, increased precipitation variability, and urban–agricultural expansion will exacerbate hydrological stress, driving substantial wetland contraction. Although certain areas may retain or slightly expand their wetlands, the dominant trend underscores the urgency of spatially targeted conservation. By synthesizing downscaled climate data, multi-temporal land cover transitions, and ecological modeling, this study provides high-resolution insights for adaptive water resource planning and wetland management in ecologically sensitive regions.