Short-term forecasting of daily COVID-19 cases in Brazil by using the Holt’s model
Edson Zangiacomí Martínez, Davi Casale Aragon, Altacílio Aparecido Nunes
Abstract
INTRODUCTION: We evaluated the performance of the Holt's model to forecast the daily COVID-19 reported cases in Brazil and three Brazilian states. METHODS: We chose the date of the first COVID-19 case to April 25, 2020, as the training period, and April 26 to May 3, 2020, as the test period. RESULTS: The Holt's model performed well in forecasting the cases in Brazil and in São Paulo and Minas Gerais states, but the forecasts were underestimated in Rio de Janeiro state. CONCLUSIONS: The Holt's model can be an adequate short-term forecasting method if their assumptions are adequately verified and validated by experts.
Topics & Concepts
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)Term (time)Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)2019-20 coronavirus outbreakGeographyMedicineVirologyOutbreakPhysicsDiseaseQuantum mechanicsPathologyInfectious disease (medical specialty)COVID-19 epidemiological studiesCOVID-19 Pandemic ImpactsCOVID-19 diagnosis using AI