AFLA-PISTACHIO: Development of a Mechanistic Model to Predict the Aflatoxin Contamination of Pistachio Nuts
Michail D. Kaminiaris, Marco Camardo Leggieri, Dimitrios Ι. Tsitsigiannis, Paola Battilani
Abstract
In recent years, very many incidences of contamination with aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) in pistachio nuts have been reported as a major global problem for the crop. In Europe, legislation is in force and 12 μg/kg of AFB1 is the maximum limit set for pistachios to be subjected to physical treatment before human consumption. The goal of the current study was to develop a mechanistic, weather-driven model to predict Aspergillus flavus growth and the AFB1 contamination of pistachios on a daily basis from nut setting until harvest. The planned steps were to: (i) build a phenology model to predict the pistachio growth stages, (ii) develop a prototype model named AFLA-pistachio (model transfer from AFLA-maize), (iii) collect the meteorological and AFB1 contamination data from pistachio orchards, (iv) run the model and elaborate a probability function to estimate the likelihood of overcoming the legal limit, and (v) manage a preliminary validation. The internal validation of AFLA-pistachio indicated that 75% of the predictions were correct. In the external validation with an independent three-year dataset, 95.6% of the samples were correctly predicted. According to the results, AFLA-pistachio seems to be a reliable tool to follow the dynamic of AFB1 contamination risk throughout the pistachio growing season.