Integrating MCDA and Rain-on-Grid Modeling for Flood Hazard Mapping in Bahrah City, Saudi Arabia

Abstract

Flooding is a significant natural hazard in arid regions, particularly in Saudi Arabia, where intense rainfall events pose serious risks to both infrastructure and public safety. Bahrah City, situated between Jeddah and Makkah, has experienced recurrent flooding owing to its topography, rapid urbanization, and inadequate drainage systems. This study aims to develop a comprehensive flood hazard mapping approach for Bahrah City by integrating remote sensing data, Geographic Information Systems (GISs), and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). Key input factors included the Digital Elevation Model (DEM), slope, distance from streams, and land use/land cover (LULC). The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was applied to assign relative weights to these factors, which were then combined with fuzzy membership values through fuzzy overlay analysis to generate a flood susceptibility map categorized into five levels. According to the AHP analysis, the high-susceptibility zone covers 2.2 km2, indicating areas highly vulnerable to flooding, whereas the moderate-susceptibility zone spans 26.1 km2, representing areas prone to occasional flooding, but with lower severity. The low-susceptibility zone, covering the largest area (44.7 km 2), corresponds to regions with a lower likelihood of significant flooding. Additionally, hydraulic simulations using the rain-on-grid (RoG) method in HEC-RAS were conducted to validate the hazard assessment by identifying inundation depths. Both the AHP analysis and the RoG flood hazard maps consistently identify the western part of Bahrah City as the high-susceptibility zone, reinforcing the reliability and complementarity of both models. These findings provide critical insights for urban planners and policymakers to improve flood hazard mitigation and strengthen resilience to future flood events.

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