Heat Island dynamics and heat stress implications on the population of El-Mansourah conurbation, Egypt: temporal and proposed solutions using MODIS imagery and ENVI-met simulation
Islam Hamdi, Mohamed Fawzy, Martina Zeleňáková, Waleed Abbas
Abstract
In Egypt, El-Mansourah Conurbation (EMC) is the second largest urban complex after Cairo Conurbation.This study focuses on identifying seasonal trends in land surface temperature during the daytime/nighttime in both urban and rural areas (RA), as well as the corresponding urban heat island (UHI) intensity 2001 to 2021.A time series of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (Terra MODIS) images was analyzed using the statistical methods of Mann-Kendall test (MKT) and Theil-Sen estimator (TSE).The findings showed that the diurnal cooling in ranged from -0.66 to -0.58 C (p < .01)across all seasons.In contrast, the nocturnal UHI exhibited a warming trend in all seasons (except for spring) ranging from 0.08 to 0.16 C (p > .1).Calculations of the Temperature-Humidity Index showed a decline in the population comfort over time, especially in the hot months, while there was a noticeable amelioration in the cool ones.To explore potential mitigation strategies, the simulation capabilities of ENVI-met were utilized.Based on a simple scenario, the ambient temperature of Salah Salem Street (SST) decreased by more than 2 C. One suggestion put forth by the research is to implement mitigation measures to address the adverse consequences that naturally arise from the unavoidable dynamics of urban areas.