Changes in community composition and functional diversity of European bats under climate change
Penelope C. Fialas, Luca Santini, Danilo Russo, Francisco Amorim, Hugo Rebelo, Roberto Novella‐Fernandez, Francisco Marqués, Adi Domer, Adriana Vella, Adriano Martinoli, Александра Фигурек, Asaf Tsoar, Attila D. Sándor, Carlos Ibáñez, Carmi Korine, Christian Kerbiriou, Christian C. Voigt, C. L. Mifsud, Csaba Jére, Dalhoumi Ridha, Damiano Preatoni, Daniela Hamidović, Eeva‐Maria Tidenberg, Emrah Çoraman, Fiona Mathews, Fulgencio Lisón, Furmankiewicz Joanna, Gunārs Pētersons, Hibat-Ellah Loumassine, Iñazio Garin, István Csősz, Jaan Liira, Javier Juste, Jean François Julien, Jeroen van der Kooij, Josić Darija, Joxerra Aihartza, Katrine Eldegard, Kendra L. Phelps, Kevin J. Olival, Kipson Marina, Leonardo Ancillotto, Lesiński Grzegorz, Levente Barti, Lisette Cantú‐Salazar, Luciano Bosso, Luísa Rodrigues, Luke Hamel, Marcel Uhrín, Maria Mas, Nataša Čereković, Nia Toshkova, Niamh Roche, Oliver Kalda, Ostaizka Aizpurua, Panagiotis Georgiakakis, Peter Kaňuch, Primož Presetnik, Raşit Bilgin, Reed April McKay, Rnjak Dina, Rnjak Goran, Ruczyński Ireneusz, Rune Sørås, Solène Robert, Stéphane Aulagnier, Stephanie Kramer‐Schadt, Suren Gazaryan, Szilárd‐Lehel Bücs, Tarkan Yorulmaz, Torsten Stjernberg, Ulla‐Maija Liukko, Victoria Nistreanu, Viesturs Vintulis, Viktoriia Radchuk, Xavier Puig‐Montserrat, Yves Bas, Maja Zagmajster, Marcin Zegarek, Zrnčić Vida, Orly Razgour
Abstract
Climate change is predicted to drive geographical range shifts that will result in changes in species diversity and functional composition and have potential repercussions for ecosystem functioning. However, the effect of these changes on species composition and functional diversity (FD) remains unclear, especially for mammals, specifically bats. We used species distribution models and a comprehensive ecological and morphometrical trait database to estimate how projected future climate and land-use changes could influence the distribution, composition, and FD of the European bat community. Future bat assemblages were predicted to undergo substantial shifts in geographic range and trait structure. Range suitability decreased substantially in southern Europe and increased in northern latitudes. Our findings highlight the potential for climate change to drive shifts in bat FD, which has implications for ecosystem function and resilience at a continental scale. It is important to incorporate FD in conservation strategies. These efforts should target species with key functional traits predicted to be lost and areas expected to experience losses in FD. Conservation strategies should include habitat and roost protection, enhancing landscape connectivity, and international monitoring to preserve bat populations and their ecosystem services.