Evaluating Apple Inc Mobility Trend Data Related to the COVID-19 Outbreak in Japan: Statistical Analysis
Junko Kurita, Yoshiyuki Sugishita, Tamie Sugawara, Yasushi Ohkusa
Abstract
BACKGROUND: In Japan, as a countermeasure against the COVID-19 outbreak, both the national and local governments issued voluntary restrictions against going out from residences at the end of March 2020 in preference to the lockdowns instituted in European and North American countries. The effect of such measures can be studied with mobility data, such as data which is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities. OBJECTIVE: We investigate the associations of mobility data provided by Apple Inc and an estimate an an effective reproduction number R(t). METHODS: We regressed R(t) on a polynomial function of daily Apple data, estimated using the whole period, and analyzed subperiods delimited by March 10, 2020. RESULTS: In the estimation results, R(t) was 1.72 when voluntary restrictions against going out ceased and mobility reverted to a normal level. However, the critical level of reducing R(t) to <1 was obtained at 89.3% of normal mobility. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrated that Apple mobility data are useful for short-term prediction of R(t). The results indicate that the number of trips should decrease by 10% until herd immunity is achieved and that higher voluntary restrictions against going out might not be necessary for avoiding a re-emergence of the outbreak.