THE NEW ITALIAN SEISMIC HAZARD MODEL (MPS19)
Carlo Meletti Warner Marzocchi, V. D’Amico, Giovanni Lanzano, Lucia Luzi, F. Martinelli, Bruno Pace, Andrea Rovida, Matteo Taroni, Francesco Visini Aybige Akinci (INGV Roma1), Marco Anzidei (INGV ONT), Antonio Avallone (INGV ONT), Raffaele Azzaro (INGV OE), Simone Barani (Univ. di Genova), Graziella Barberi (INGV OE), Giovanni Barreca (Univ. di Catania), Roberto Basili (INGV Roma1), Peter Bird (Univ. of California Los Angeles), Marco Bonini (CNR IGG Firenze), Pierfrancesco Burrato (INGV Roma1), Martina Busetti (OGS Trieste), Romano Camassi (INGV Bologna), Michele Matteo Cosimo Carafa (INGV Roma1), Adriano Cavaliere (INGV Bologna), Giampaolo Cecere (INGV ONT), Daniele Cheloni (INGV ONT), Eugenio Chioccarelli (Univ. Napoli Federico II), Rodolfo Console (INGV Roma1), Giacomo Corti (CNR IGG Firenze), Nicola D'Agostino (INGV ONT), Michela Dal Cin (OGS Trieste, Univ. di Trieste), Ciriaco D'Ambrosio (INGV ONT), Maria D’Amico (INGV Milano), Salvatore D’Amico (INGV OE), Roberto Devoti (INGV ONT), Alessandra Esposito (INGV ONT), Licia Faenza (INGV Bologna), Giuseppe Falcone (INGV Roma1), Chiara Felicetta (INGV Milano), Umberto Fracassi (INGV Roma1), Luigi Franco (INGV ONT), Alessandro Galvani (INGV ONT), Paolo Gasperini (Univ. di Bologna), Robin Gee (Fondazione GEM), Antonio Augusto Gomez Capera (INGV Milano), Iunio Iervolino (Univ. Napoli Federico II), Vanja Kastelic (INGV Roma1), Carlo G. Lai (Univ. di Pavia), Mario Locati (INGV Milano), Barbara Lolli (INGV Bologna), Francesco Emanuele Maesano (INGV Roma1), Andrea Marchesini, Maria Teresa Mariucci (INGV Roma1), Luca Martelli (Regione Emilia Romagna), Marco Massa (INGV Milano), Marianne Metois (INGV ONT), Carmelo Monaco (Univ. di Catania), Paola Montone (INGV Roma1), Morgan Moschetti (USGS, Denver USA), Maura Murru (INGV Roma1), Francesca Pacor (INGV Milano), Marco Pagani (Fondazione GEM), Chiara Pasolini (Univ. di Bologna), Antonella Peresan (OGS Trieste), Laura Peruzza (OGS Trieste), Grazia Pietrantonio (INGV ONT), Poli Maria Eliana, Silvia Pondrelli (INGV Bologna), Rodolfo Puglia (INGV Milano), Alessandro Rebez (OGS Trieste), Federica Riguzzi (INGV ONT), Pamela Roselli (INGV Roma1), Renata Rotondi (CNRIMATI), Emiliano Russo (INGV Milano), Federico Sani (Univ. di Firenze), Marco Santulin (OGS Trieste), Giulio Selvaggi (INGV ONT), Davide Scafidi (Univ. di Genova), Jacopo Selva (INGV Bologna), Vincenzo Sepe (INGV ONT), Enrico Serpelloni (INGV Bologna), Dario Slejko (OGS Trieste), Daniele Spallarossa (Univ. di Genova), Angela Stallone (INGV Roma1), Alberto Tamaro (OGS Trieste, Univ. di Udine), Gabriele Tarabusi (INGV Roma1), Mara Monica Tiberti (INGV Roma1), Tiziana Tuvè (INGV OE), Gianluca Valensise (INGV Roma1), Roberto Vallone (INGV Roma1), Paola Vannoli (INGV Roma1), Gianfranco Vannucci (INGV Bologna), Elisa Varini (CNR-IMATI), Adriano Zanferrari, Elisa Zuccolo (EUCENTRE).
Abstract
We describe the main structure and outcomes of the new probabilistic seismic hazard model for Italy, MPS19 [Modello di Pericolosità Sismica, 2019]. Besides to outline the probabilistic framework adopted, the multitude of new data that have been made available after the preparation of the previous MPS04, and the set of earthquake rate and ground motion models used, we give particular emphasis to the main novelties of the modeling and the MPS19 outcomes. Specifically, we (i) introduce a novel approach to estimate and to visualize the epistemic uncertainty over the whole country; (ii) assign weights to each model components (earthquake rate and ground motion models) according to a quantitative testing phase and structured experts’ elicitation sessions; (iii) test (retrospectively) the MPS19 outcomes with the horizontal peak ground acceleration observed in the last decades, and the macroseismic intensities of the last centuries; (iv) introduce a pioneering approach to build MPS19_cluster, which accounts for the effect of earthquakes that have been removed by declustering. Finally, to make the interpretation of MPS19 outcomes easier for a wide range of possible stakeholders, we represent the final result also in terms of probability to exceed 0.15 g in 50 years.