Modeling the incidence and death rates of COVID-19 pandemic in different regions of the world
Ricardo Puziol de Oliveira, Jorge Alberto Achcar, Altacílio Aparecido Nunes
Abstract
Abstract This paper reports a broad study using epidemic-related counting data of COVID-19 disease caused by the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2). The considered dataset refers to 119 countries’ daily counts of reported cases and deaths in a fixed period. For the data analysis, it has been adopted a beta regression model assuming different regions of the world where it was possible to discover important economic, health and social factors affecting the behavior of the pandemic in different countries. The Bayesian method was applied to fit the proposed model. Some interesting conclusions were obtained in this study, which could be of great interest to epidemiologists, health authorities, and the general public in the face of the forthcoming hard times of the global pandemic.