Electrifying: What factors drive the transition toward electric vehicle adoption in the Netherlands?
Linlin Zhang, Dea van Lierop, Dick Ettema
Abstract
Using the Dutch National Travel Survey data (2018-2020) and nested logit regression models, this study investigates car adoption as part of household car fleet choices, distinguishing between ICEVs, HEVs, PHEVs, and BEVs, and examines the factors associated with these choices. The model results indicate that having a higher income is an important factor for PHEV and BEV adoption in both one- and two-car fleets, and its effect remains strongest on PHEV adoption in one-car households over time. One-car households with a PHEV or BEV tend to have higher education levels than two-car households, and over time, the higher education effect remains strongest for BEV adoption in one-car households. BEV adoption among one-car households remains a predominately urban phenomenon. Nevertheless, BEVs and PHEV user segments are growing. For instance, PHEV and BEV adoption in two-car households has become less dependent on higher education and less concentrated in highly urbanized areas. Our findings suggest that, with the impending major transition toward electric transportation, the user group characteristics of PHEVs and BEVs are gradually changing. From a policy perspective, it is important to monitor the uptake of new technologies among different user groups, paying specific attention to those which lag behind.