Can Science Help Resolve the Controversy on the Origins of the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic?
Arturo Casadevall, Susan R. Weiss, Michael J. Imperiale
Abstract
The origins of the calamitous SARS-CoV-2 pandemic are now the subject of vigorous discussion and debate between two competing hypotheses for how it entered the human population: (i) direct infection from a feral source, likely a bat and possibly with an intermediate mammalian host, and (ii) a lab accident whereby bat isolates infected a researcher, who then passed it to others. Here, we ask whether the tools of science can help resolve the origins question and conclude that while such studies can provide important information, these are unlikely to provide a definitive answer. Currently available data combined with historical precedent from other outbreaks and viewed through the prism of Occam's razor favor the feral source hypothesis, but science can provide only probabilities, not certainty.