Litcius/Paper detail

The early warning paradox

Hugh Logan Ellis, Edward Palmer, James Teo, Martin Whyte, Kenneth Rockwood, Zina Ibrahim

2025npj Digital Medicine13 citationsDOIOpen Access PDF

Abstract

Machine learning models in healthcare aim to predict critical outcomes but often overlook existing Early Warning Systems’ impact. Using data from King’s College Hospital, we demonstrate how current evaluation methods can lead to paradoxical results. We discuss challenges in developing ML models from retrospective data and propose a novel approach focused on identifying when patients enter a ‘risk state’ through latent health representations, potentially transforming clinical decision-making.

Topics & Concepts

Warning systemComputer scienceHealth careArtificial intelligenceData sciencePolitical scienceLawTelecommunicationsMachine Learning in HealthcareSepsis Diagnosis and TreatmentExplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI)