Achieving deep transport energy demand reductions in the United Kingdom
Christian Brand, Greg Marsden, Jillian Anable, Jennifer Dixon, John Barrett
Abstract
The transport sector is a crucial yet challenging area to decarbonize, given its heavy reliance on fossil fuel usage, carbon-intensive infrastructure and car-centric lifestyles. It remains the largest contributor to local air pollution in cities yet has the potential to improve people's physical and mental health. This research investigated the potential contribution of transport energy demand reduction to climate change mitigation and improving public health. Using a comprehensive bottom-up modelling framework, the Transport Energy and Air pollution Model (TEAM), this study provides an integrated assessment of the impacts of deep mobility-related energy demand reductions, including lifecycle carbon emissions, local air pollution and health impacts. Using a sociotechnical scenario approach and the UK as a case study, this research reveals that energy demand reductions of up to 61 % by 2050 compared to baseline levels are achievable and can enhance citizens' quality of life. Business as usual approaches which rely on a technical transition miss the legislated carbon budgets and result in higher energy demand in 2050. More comprehensive scenarios deliver a reduction of up to 72 % in total lifecycle carbon emissions by 2050, with approximately half of the reduction achieved through mode shifting and avoiding travel, while the other half comes from vehicle energy efficiency, electrification, and downsizing of the vehicle fleets. The research shows that it can lead to significant co-benefits such as improved local air pollution and public health. The feasibility and practicality of policy measures and integrated strategies identified for achieving deep transport-energy demand reductions are discussed. • Comprehensive scenario modelling framework of transport energy demand was used. • The UK is unlikely to meet climate targets without energy demand reduction measures. • Energy demand reductions of up to 61 % compared to baseline levels are achievable. • Shifting and avoiding travel and moving goods can contribute half of the reductions. • Large co-benefits of improved public health and local air pollution are achievable.