Early analysis of the Australian COVID-19 epidemic
David J. Price, Freya M. Shearer, Michael T. Meehan, Emma S. McBryde, Robert Moss, Nick Golding, Eamon Conway, Peter Dawson, Deborah Cromer, James Wood, Sam Abbott, Jodie McVernon, James M. McCaw
Abstract
As of 1 May 2020, there had been 6808 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Australia. Of these, 98 had died from the disease. The epidemic had been in decline since mid-March, with 308 cases confirmed nationally since 14 April. This suggests that the collective actions of the Australian public and government authorities in response to COVID-19 were sufficiently early and assiduous to avert a public health crisis - for now. Analysing factors that contribute to individual country experiences of COVID-19, such as the intensity and timing of public health interventions, will assist in the next stage of response planning globally. We describe how the epidemic and public health response unfolded in Australia up to 13 April. We estimate that the effective reproduction number was likely below one in each Australian state since mid-March and forecast that clinical demand would remain below capacity thresholds over the forecast period (from mid-to-late April).