The burden and trends of heart failure caused by ischaemic heart disease at the global, regional, and national levels from 1990 to 2021
Hongwei Zhang, Xiaoyu Zheng, Pingping Huang, Lijun Guo, Yuan Zheng, Dawu Zhang, Xiaochang Ma
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Ischaemic heart disease (IHD) is a major cause of heart failure (HF), a condition expected to increasingly affect global health and economics. This study evaluates the global burden, trends, and disparities of HF linked to IHD, aiming to inform health policy development. METHODS AND RESULTS: Data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD2021) are analysed using joinpoint regression, decomposition analysis, and Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis (BAPC). Health disparities are assessed through the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) via the Slope Index of Inequality and the Concentration Index, with future trends projected from 2022 to 2045. In 2021, global HF cases due to IHD were over 19.16 million, with an age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of 228.31 per 100 000 [95% Uncertainty Interval (UI), 188.18-279.55] and age-standardized years lived with disability (ASYLDs) rate of 20.43 per 100 000 [95% UI, 13.55-28.7]. In 2021, there was a 2.87% increase in ASPR and ASYLDs compared with 1990, primarily driven by population growth and aging. Significant reductions in global ASPR and ASYLDs disparities are observed, though the disease burden has intensified in countries with lower SDI levels. Projections indicate that by 2045, while the prevalence and years lived with disability for HF caused by IHD will increase, the ASPR and ASYLDs are expected to decrease. CONCLUSION: The global burden of HF due to IHD remains a significant concern. Urgent improvements in the allocation of medical resources and the implementation of effective prevention and management strategies are necessary to address this issue.