Artificial intelligence knacks-based computing for stochastic COVID-19 SIRC epidemic model with time delay
Muhammad Shoaib, Adeeba Haider, Muhammad Asif Zahoor Raja, Kottakkaran Sooppy Nisar
Abstract
Time delays play an important part in modeling the fact that one cannot be communicable for a long time after becoming sick. Delay can be triggered by a variety of epidemiological situations. The most egregious causes of a delay are infection latency in the vector and infection latency in the infected host. The dynamics of susceptible, infected, recovered and cross-immune (SIRC) classed-based model having cross-immune and time-delay in the transmission for spread of COVID-19 abbreviated as (SIRC-CTC-19) are investigated in this study using an intelligent numerical computing paradigm based on the Levenberg–Marquardt Method backpropagated by neural networks (LM-BPNN). The model is mathematically governed by a system of ordinary differential equations that depicts the four nodes as susceptible, infected, recovered and cross-immune ones (SIRC) nodes with cross-immune class and time-delay in transmission components for COVID-19 dissemination (CTC-19). The reference solution of the SIRC model for the spread of COVID-19 is produced by using the explicit Runge–Kutta method for the many scenarios of this model arising from altering delay with regard to time. This reference solution permits the use of evolutionary computing to solve the SIRC-CTC-19 using train, validate and test techniques. The proposed LM-BPNN method’s accuracy has been proven by its results overlapping with explicit Runge–Kutta results Calculation of regression metrics, error analysis of histogram illustrations and learning curves on MSE effectively augment the LM-BPNN’s accuracy, convergence and reliability in solving the SIRC-CTC-19 model.