An Early Pandemic Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 Population Structure and Dynamics in Arizona
Jason T. Ladner, Brendan B. Larsen, Jolene R. Bowers, Crystal M. Hepp, Evan Bolyen, Megan Folkerts, Krystal Sheridan, Ashlyn Pfeiffer, Hayley D. Yaglom, Darrin Lemmer, Jason W. Sahl, Emily A. Kaelin, Rabia Maqsood, Nicholas A. Bokulich, Grace Quirk, Thomas D. Watts, Kenneth Komatsu, Victor Waddell, Efrem S. Lim, J. Gregory Caporaso, David M. Engelthaler, Michael Worobey, Paul Keim
Abstract
As the COVID-19 pandemic swept across the United States, there was great differential impact on local and regional communities. One of the earliest and hardest hit regions was in New York, while at the same time Arizona (for example) had low incidence. That situation has changed dramatically, with Arizona now having the highest rate of disease increase in the country. Understanding the roots of the pandemic during the initial months is essential as the pandemic continues and reaches new heights. Genomic analysis and phylogenetic modeling of SARS-COV-2 in Arizona can help to reconstruct population composition and predict the earliest undetected introductions. This foundational work represents the basis for future analysis and understanding as the pandemic continues.