Influence of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios on the bioclimatic design strategies of the built environment
David Bienvenido-Huertas, Carlos Rubio-Bellido, David Marín García, Jacinto Canivell
Abstract
Over time, whether through traditional knowledge or the constructive implementation, the relationship of the built environment with the climate conditions of a certain place has been developed. The control of these symbiotic solutions based on the climate-conscious design and their strategic approach have been improved to keep better welfare levels. Due to climate change, however, design strategies could be modified in a context of global warming. This research considers the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5 and RCP 8.5) to analyse the effectiveness of the design strategies throughout the 21 st century. A total of 6 countries (France, Portugal, Spain, Argentina, Brazil, and Chile) were selected to assess both thermal comfort levels and the need for using HVAC systems in each climate zone and in all future scenarios, so 1,450 cases were studied. The results showed that the less conservative climate change scenarios will affect thermal comfort, thus significantly reducing comfort hours in warm climates. In addition, passive design strategies could be less effective in the future, predominating the use of cooling systems. As a result of this research, future design strategies should be dynamic and permeable for possible scenarios.