Perioperative Predictors of Early Recurrence for Resectable and Borderline-Resectable Pancreatic Cancer
Masafumi Imamura, Minoru Nagayama, Daisuke Kyuno, Shigenori Ota, Takeshi Murakami, Akina Kimura, Hiroshi Yamaguchi, Toru Kato, Yasutoshi Kimura, Ichiro Takemasa
Abstract
We aimed to identify the perioperative predictors of the early recurrence (ER) of resectable and borderline-resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinomas (PDACs). After surgery for a PDAC, most patients develop a recurrence. Predictive factors may therefore guide therapeutic decision-making. Patients (n = 234) who underwent a pancreatectomy for a PDAC between 2006 and 2019 were included. The postrecurrence survival (PRS) was estimated using Kaplan–Meier curves. Predictive factors for an ER were assessed using logistic regression analyses; 93 patients (39.7%) were recurrence-free at the last follow-up. Patients with an ER (n = 85, 36.3%), defined as a recurrence within the first 12 months after surgery, had 1- and 2-year PRS rates of 38.7% and 9.5%, respectively, compared with 66.9% and 37.2% for those with a late recurrence (n = 56, 23.9%; both p < 0.001). The most common site of an ER was the liver (55.3%) with a significantly shorter median overall survival time than that with either a local or a lung recurrence (14.5 months; p < 0.001). Preoperative and postoperative risk factors for an ER included a tumor size >3.0 cm (odds ratio (OR): 3.11, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.35–7.14) and preoperative carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) levels >52 U/mL (OR: 3.25, 95% CI: 1.67–6.30) and a pathological tumor size >3.0 cm (OR: 2.00, 95% CI: 1.03–3.90) and postoperative carbohydrate antigen 19-9 levels >37 U/mL (OR: 2.11, 95% CI: 1.02–4.36), respectively. Preoperatively (>52 U/mL) and postoperatively (>37 U/mL) elevated CA19-9 and a tumor size >3.0 cm were independent predictors for an ER after a pancreatectomy for a PDAC.