Assessing the ecological and economic transformation pathways of plastic production system
Ibrahim Issifu, Ilyass Dahmouni, U. Rashid Sumaila
Abstract
Plastic's incredible versatility drives its continuous production growth, contributing to 4.5% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. With an unsustainable 4% annual production growth rate, plastics' environmental impact is significant. Our study, using climate and economic models, assesses the effects of a voluntary plastic levy imposed on the top 100 resin producers. The results suggest a potential 70% reduction in global plastic production emissions by 2050, lowering emissions from business–as–usual levels to 1.62 Gt CO 2 e. The proposed USD 82.5 billion levy over 25 years could fund recycling initiatives, increasing recycling rates by 73%. To align with the Paris Agreement target of 1.5 °C, plastic production growth would need to drop to approximately 2.9%–3.1% annually, achieving a 25% decrease by 2050. Implementing this levy could significantly enhance recycling and reduce emissions, mitigating climate change. • A voluntary levy imposed on the leading resin producers, who account for over 90% of global production, could reduce plastic emissions by 70% by 2050. • The levy is projected to generate USD 82.5 billion over 25 years, increasing recycling rates by 73%. • To meet the 1.5 °C climate target, plastic production growth must be reduced and sustained at 3.1% annually. • Game theory analysis demonstrates that cooperative behavior can effectively minimize environmental damage while keeping costs low. • Enhanced recycling and circular economy practices are essential to mitigate the impacts of plastic pollution.