A long-term forecasting and simulation model for strategic planning of hospital bed capacity
Timo Latruwe, Marlies Van der Wee, Pieter Vanleenhove, Joke Devriese, Sofie Verbrugge, Didier Colle
Abstract
Growing healthcare needs leverage the potential savings of using resources efficiently. To that end, ProMoBed is a comprehensive model that supports strategic planning of bed capacity in inpatient hospitals. The model consists of an extrapolation and simulation component, the former supplying input for the latter. The extrapolation model forecasts admission rates and the average Length of Stay for pathology groups, and corrects for demographic changes. Subsequently, the simulation model emulates the demand for bed capacity, and makes service-level based bed capacity suggestions. Additionally, the model uses the Shapley value principle to disaggregate the effects on demand for inpatient days due to different causes. Results from the extrapolation model are applied to regions in Belgium, showing expected divergence in inpatient day demand evolution.