Early assessment of diffusion and possible expansion of SARS-CoV-2 Lineage 20I/501Y.V1 (B.1.1.7, variant of concern 202012/01) in France, January to March 2021
Alexandre Gaymard, Paolo Bosetti, Adeline Feri, Grégory Destras, Vincent Enouf, Alessio Andronico, Sonia Burrel, Sylvie Behillil, Claire Sauvage, Antonin Bal, Florence Morfin, Sylvie van der Werf, Laurence Josset, ANRS MIE AC43 COVID-19, French viro COVID group, François Blanquart, B. Coignard, Simon Cauchemez, Bruno Lina
Abstract
The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variant 20I/501Y.V1 (VOC-202012/1 or GR/501Y.V1) is concerning given its increased transmissibility. We reanalysed 11,916 PCR-positive tests (41% of all positive tests) performed on 7-8 January 2021 in France. The prevalence of 20I/501Y.V1 was 3.3% among positive tests nationwide and 6.9% in the Paris region. Analysing the recent rise in the prevalence of 20I/501Y.V1, we estimate that, in the French context, 20I/501Y.V1 is 52-69% more transmissible than the previously circulating lineages, depending on modelling assumptions.