Projection of compound wind and precipitation extremes in China based on Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project models
Meng Yu, Zengchao Hao, Yu Zhang, Xuan Zhang, Fanghua Hao
Abstract
Abstract Extreme precipitation and extreme wind may lead to catastrophic impacts on ecosystems, infrastructure, human dwellings and settlements. The concurrence of the two extremes, compound wind and precipitation extremes (CWPEs), may cause even larger impacts than the univariate counterparts. Under global warming with increased weather and climate extremes, there is a necessity to explore projected changes of CWPEs in the future. Based on daily precipitation and surface wind speed from observations (CN05.1) and simulations of Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) models, we assess changes of CWPEs in the mainland of China in the future. By defining CWPEs based on the 98th percentile threshold in summer seasons (June–July–August [JJA]) in historical periods (1995–2014), we first explore the model performance in simulating precipitation, wind speed and CWPEs in China during JJA in historical periods. We then compute the projected changes of CWPEs in the near‐term (2021–2040), mid‐term (2041–2060) and long‐term (2081–2100) periods under SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 scenarios. The occurrence of CWPEs is projected to increase in three future periods, particularly in the south and east China. Though a slight increase of CWPEs is shown under SSP1‐2.6 and SSP2‐4.5, the projected changes of CWPEs under SSP5‐8.5 show a dramatic increase (around 46%) in the long‐term period. Our assessment of projected changes in CWPEs can provide useful information to cope with the impact of CWPEs in China under climate change.