Further evidence that wound size and duration are strong prognostic markers of diabetic foot ulcer healing
David J. Margolis, Nandita Mitra, D. Scott Malay, Ziad K. Mirza, John C Lantis, Hadar Lev‐Tov, Robert S. Kirsner, Stephan R. Thom
Abstract
Diabetic foot ulcers (DFU) are a critical problem for those with diabetes mellitus. Predicting the healing likelihood of a DFU is important to implementing appropriate care, allocating resources, having access to advanced therapies, having successful clinical trials, calibrating clinical trial results, and providing information to administrative entities on patient and provider outcomes. Prognostic modelling can also be important when attempting to compare results across trials or care centres. In a prospective cohort study, we demonstrate and replicate that simple wound characteristics like wound area and wound duration can be used to predict wound healing by the 16th week of care. The models were based on previous literature and replicated using a machine learning algorithm. The use of wound duration and wound area in a prognostic model continues to be important when comparing study results, centre-based outcomes, as well as designing clinical trials.