Quantifying Wildfire-Induced Impacts to Photovoltaic Energy Production in the western United States
Samuel Gilletly, Nicole Jackson, Andrea Staid
Abstract
Smoke from wildfires results in air pollution that can impact the performance of solar photovoltaic plants. Production is impacted by factors including the proximity of the fire to a site of interest, the extent of the wildfire, wind direction, and ambient weather conditions. We construct a model that quantifies the relationships among weather, wildfire-induced pollution, and PV production for utility-scale and distributed generation sites located in the western United States. The regression model identified a 9.4%-37.8% reduction in solar PV production on smokey days. This model can be used to determine expected production losses at impacted sites. We also present an analysis of factors that contribute to solar photovoltaic energy production impacts from wildfires. This work will inform anticipated production changes for more accurate grid planning and operational considerations.