Estimating global injuries morbidity and mortality: methods and data used in the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study
Spencer L James, Chris D Castle, Zachary V Dingels, Jack T Fox, Erin B Hamilton, Zichen Liu, Nicholas L S Roberts, Dillon O Sylte, Gregory J Bertolacci, Matthew Cunningham, Nathaniel J Henry, Kate E LeGrand, Ahmed Abdelalim, Ibrahim Abdollahpour, Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader, Aidin Abedi, Kedir Hussein Abegaz, Akine Eshete, Abdelrahman Ibrahim Abushouk, Oladimeji Adebayo, José Carmelo Adsuar, Shailesh M Advani, Marcela Agudelo‐Botero, Tauseef Ahmad, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Rushdiá Ahmed, Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour, Fares Alahdab, Fahad Alanezi, Niguse Meles Alema, Biresaw Wassihun, Suliman Alghnam, Beriwan Abdulqadir Ali, Saqib Ali, Cyrus Alinia, Vahid Alipour, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, Amir Almasi‐Hashiani, Nihad A. Almasri, Khalid A Altirkawi, Yasser Sami Amer, Cătălina Liliana Andrei, Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam, Carl Abelardo T Antonio, Davood Anvari, Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah, Jalal Arabloo, Morteza Arab‐Zozani, Zohreh Arefi, Olatunde Aremu, Filippo Ariani, Amit Arora, Malke Asaad, Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla, Getinet Ayano, Martin Amogre Ayanore, Ghasem Azarian, Alaa Badawi, Ashish Badiye, Atif Amin Baig, Mohan Bairwa, Ahad Bakhtiari, Arun Balachandran, Maciej Banach, Srikanta Banerjee, Palash Chandra Banik, Amrit Banstola, Suzanne Barker‐Collo, Till Bärnighausen, Akbar Barzegar, Mohsen Bayati, Shahrzad Bazargan‐Hejazi, Neeraj Bedi, Masoud Behzadifar, Habte Belete, Derrick Bennett, Isabela M. Benseñor, Kidanemaryam Berhe, Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula, Pankaj Bhardwaj, Anusha Ganapati Bhat, Krittika Bhattacharyya, Zulfiqar A Bhutta, Sadia Bibi, Ali Bijani, Archith Boloor, Guilherme Borges, Rohan Borschmann, Antonio Maria Borzì, Soufiane Boufous, Dejana Braithwaite, Н. И. Брико, Traolach Brugha, Shyam Sundar Budhathoki, Josip Car, Rosario Cárdenas, Félix Carvalho, João Maurício Castaldelli-Maia, Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela, Giulio Castelpietra
Abstract
BACKGROUND: While there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria. METHODS: In this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced. RESULTS: GBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes. CONCLUSIONS: GBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future.