Targeted carbon dioxide removal measures are essential for the cost and energy transformation of the electricity sector by 2050
Sandylove Afrane, Jeffrey Dankwa Ampah, Humphrey Adun, Jian Lin Chen, Hongyang Zou, Guozhu Mao, Pingjian Yang
Abstract
Carbon dioxide removal is crucial for moderating the rapid pace of power sector transformation, while electrification can reduce the emission intensity of the carbon removal process. Here, we use a multisector model to explore the impact of varying levels of CO2 removal (1 to 10 gigatonnes CO2 per year) on the electricity sector by 2050 under 1.5 °C and 2 °C future warming. Our results show that under high CO2 removal pathways, up to 5% of electricity consumption could be dedicated to removing CO2. Limited CO2 removal by 2050 could increase asset stranding costs by US$165-225 billion in fossil-intensive countries like China, the US, and India. Also, a 15% additional mitigation of committed emissions in the power sector would be needed under constrained CO2 removal pathways. While a high CO2 removal future is key to alleviating the burden of power sector transformation, it carries the risk of increased committed emissions. Careful planning is required to balance a less disruptive transformation without compromising climate targets. Carbon dioxide removal can minimize the scale of asset stranding in the power sector but at a risk of increased committed emissions under 1.5° and 2° climate targets, according to a multi-sector model analysis of six carbon removal technologies.