A Bayesian network model for predicting cardiovascular risk
José M. Ordovás, David Rı́os Insua, Alejandro Santos‐Lozano, Alejandro Lucía, A. Torres, A. Kosgodagan, Jose Manuel Camacho
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Cardiovascular diseases are the leading death cause in Europe and entail large treatment costs. Cardiovascular risk prediction is crucial for the management and control of cardiovascular diseases. Based on a Bayesian network built from a large population database and expert judgment, this work studies interrelations between cardiovascular risk factors, emphasizing the predictive assessment of medical conditions, and providing a computational tool to explore and hypothesize such interrelations. METHODS: We implement a Bayesian network model that considers modifiable and non-modifiable cardiovascular risk factors as well as related medical conditions. Both the structure and the probability tables in the underlying model are built using a large dataset collected from annual work health assessments as well as expert information, with uncertainty characterized through posterior distributions. RESULTS: The implemented model allows for making inferences and predictions about cardiovascular risk factors. The model can be utilized as a decision- support tool to suggest diagnosis, treatment, policy, and research hypothesis. The work is complemented with a free software implementing the model for practitioners' use. CONCLUSIONS: Our implementation of the Bayesian network model facilitates answering public health, policy, diagnosis, and research questions concerning cardiovascular risk factors.