Remote Estimation of Sea Surface Nitrate in the California Current System From Satellite Ocean Color Measurements
Xiaolei Yu, Shuangling Chen, Fei Chai
Abstract
Sea surface nitrate (SSN) is an important parameter to characterize physical and biogeochemical processes, particularly to quantify oceanic new primary production, yet its remote estimation from satellite has been difficult due to the complex relationships between environmental variables and SSN. In the central and southern sections of the California Current System (CSCCS), this challenge is attempted through modeling, validation, and extensive tests in different oceanic scenarios. Specifically, using extensive SSN datasets collected by many cruises spanning 40 years (1978–2018) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) estimated sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll-a (Chl), a stacking random forest (SRF) model of SSN has been developed and validated with a spatial resolution of ~4 km. The model showed an overall performance of root mean square difference (RMSD) <inline-formula xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <tex-math notation="LaTeX">$=0.83\,\,\mu $ </tex-math></inline-formula> mol/kg, with coefficient of determination ( <inline-formula xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <tex-math notation="LaTeX">$R^{2}) =0.87$ </tex-math></inline-formula> , mean bias <inline-formula xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <tex-math notation="LaTeX">$= -0.11\,\,\mu $ </tex-math></inline-formula> mol/kg, and mean ratio = 1.15 for SSN ranging between 0.05 and <inline-formula xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <tex-math notation="LaTeX">$19.90~\mu $ </tex-math></inline-formula> mol/kg ( <inline-formula xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <tex-math notation="LaTeX">$N =1034$ </tex-math></inline-formula> ). Furthermore, tests of the model with its original parameterization for the upwelling period, oceanic period, and winter period all showed satisfactory performance with an overall RMSD of 1.95 <inline-formula xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <tex-math notation="LaTeX">$\mu $ </tex-math></inline-formula> mol/kg. The sensitivity of the SRF model to uncertainties of MODIS SST and Chl was examined, with induced uncertainties of <inline-formula xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <tex-math notation="LaTeX">$\le 2.22~\mu $ </tex-math></inline-formula> mol/kg. The extensive evaluation and sensitivity tests indicated the robustness of the SRF model in estimating SSN in the study area of the CSCCS, and it could serve as a robust approach for other regions once sufficient <italic xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">in situ</i> SSN data are available for model calibration.