Using Value-Focused Thinking and Multicriteria Decision Making to Evaluate Energy Transition Alternatives
Tim Höfer, Rüdiger von Nitzsch, Reinhard Madlener
Abstract
The future transformation of the energy system is a contentious topic, involving a variety of conflicting opinions and interests. In order to structure and evaluate these opinions, we develop a decision-making process with professional stakeholders and energy experts. The aim of this process is to develop a common objective system for the energy transition and to evaluate four possible energy transition alternatives for Germany until 2030. We apply value-focused thinking to define and structure the objectives of the stakeholders and use multiattribute utility theory to evaluate the preferences of the stakeholders toward these objectives. The results show that 8 out of 11 stakeholders prefer the energy transition alternative with the highest climate protection ambitions. Only 3 stakeholders favor the pan-European alternative, where Germany’s power system is further integrated into the European energy system.