Warming exacerbates global inequality in forest carbon and nitrogen cycles
Jinglan Cui, Ouping Deng, Miao Zheng, Xiuming Zhang, Zihao Bian, Naiqing Pan, Hanqin Tian, Jianming Xu, Baojing Gu
Abstract
Forests are invaluable natural resources that provide essential services to humanity. However, the effects of global warming on forest carbon and nitrogen cycling remain uncertain. Here we project a decrease in total nitrogen input and accumulation by 7 ± 2 and 28 ± 9 million tonnes (Tg), respectively, and an increase in reactive nitrogen losses to the environment by 9 ± 3 Tg for 2100 due to warming in a fossil-fueled society. This would compromise the global carbon sink capacity by 0.45 ± 0.14 billion tonnes annually. Furthermore, warming-induced inequality in forest carbon and nitrogen cycles could widen the economic gap between the Global South and Global North. High-income countries are estimated to gain US$179 billion in benefits from forest assets under warming, while other regions could face net damages of US$31 billion. Implementing climate-smart forest management, such as comprehensive restoration and optimizing tree species composition, is imperative in the face of future climate change. Global warming may widen the development gap between the Global South and North by increasing inequalities in forest carbon and nitrogen cycling. High-income countries are expected to benefit from forest assets, while others face net losses.