The Impact of Control Interventions on Malaria Burden in Young Children in a Historically High-Transmission District of Uganda: A Pooled Analysis of Cohort Studies from 2007 to 2018
Moses R. Kamya, Abel Kakuru, Mary Muhindo, Emmanuel Arinaitwe, Joaniter I. Nankabirwa, John Rek, Victor Bigira, James Kapisi, Humphrey Wanzira, Jane Achan, Paul Natureeba, Anne Gasasira, Diane V. Havlir, Prasanna Jagannathan, Philip J. Rosenthal, Isabel Rodríguez-Barraquer, Grant Dorsey
Abstract
There is limited evidence on whether malaria elimination is feasible in high-transmission areas of Africa. Between 2007 and 2018, we measured the impact of malaria control interventions in young children enrolled in three clinical trials and two observational studies in Tororo, Uganda, a historically high-transmission area. Data were pooled from children aged 0.5-2 years. Interventions included individually assigned chemoprevention and repeated rounds of indoor residual spraying (IRS) of insecticide. All children received long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and treatment for symptomatic malaria with artemisinin-based combination therapy. Malaria incidence was measured using passive surveillance and parasite prevalence by microscopy and molecular methods at regular intervals. Poisson's generalized linear mixed-effects models were used to estimate the impact of various control interventions. In total, 939 children were followed over 1,221.7 person years. In the absence of chemoprevention and IRS (reference group), malaria incidence was 4.94 episodes per person year and parasite prevalence 47.3%. Compared with the reference group, implementation of IRS was associated with a 97.6% decrease (95% CI: 93.3-99.1%, P = 0.001) in the incidence of malaria and a 96.0% decrease (95% CI: 91.3-98.2%, P < 0.001) in parasite prevalence (both measured after the fifth and sixth rounds of IRS). The addition of chemoprevention with monthly dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine to IRS was associated with a 99.5% decrease (95% CI: 98.6-99.9%, P < 0.001) in the incidence of malaria. In a historically high-malaria burden area of Uganda, a combination of LLINs, effective case management, IRS, and chemoprevention was associated with almost complete elimination of malaria in young children.